Bitcoin and Ethereum started the week on shaky footing Monday as the crypto market struggled to find direction after months of weakness. Bitcoin opened at $62,829.64, down 0.3% from Sunday’s opening level, while Ethereum opened at $1,874.10, a decline of 0.4%. Both cryptocurrencies recovered some ground during morning trading, with bitcoin climbing back above $63,000 and ethereum approaching $1,900.
The modest rebound does little to erase the damage from the broader downturn. Bitcoin remains more than 3% lower over the past week and roughly 46% below its level from a year ago, while Ethereum has fallen nearly 58% over the past 12 months. The prolonged slump has left investors wrestling with a familiar question: Is crypto finally carving out a bear-market bottom, or does another leg lower still lie ahead?
Bitcoin’s Quiet Trading Could Be Setting Up a Bigger Move
Bitcoin’s recent lack of volatility has become one of the more closely watched signals in the market. The cryptocurrency has spent much of the past several sessions hovering around $63,000, with relatively subdued price swings compared with the dramatic moves investors have come to expect from bitcoin.
That calm has produced dramatically different interpretations among crypto analysts. Adam Livingston has pointed to similarities between the current setup and bitcoin’s behavior surrounding its 2022 bottom, arguing that compressed volatility could eventually give way to a major upside move. Benjamin Cowen, however, has suggested bitcoin may still be roughly 69 to 73 days away from a cyclical bottom based on the timing of previous market cycles.
Those competing views illustrate just how difficult the current market has become to read. Bitcoin has fallen dramatically from its October 2025 record above $126,000, but it has also shown an ability to hold the low-$60,000 range despite weak sentiment and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. For investors, the next decisive move out of bitcoin’s increasingly narrow trading range could therefore carry more significance than the day-to-day fluctuations currently dominating the market.
Crypto Investors Are Getting Conflicting Signals
- Interest rates: Softer inflation, weaker employment data, and disappointing retail sales have sharply reduced expectations for another immediate Federal Reserve rate hike. A Reuters poll published Monday found that a strong majority of economists expect the Fed to leave its benchmark rate unchanged through the end of 2026.
- ETF flows: Institutional demand remains a potential weak point. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs suffered roughly $390 million in outflows last week, their largest weekly withdrawal since early July, adding another source of selling pressure to an already fragile market.
- Geopolitical uncertainty: The unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict and continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are keeping investors cautious. Higher oil prices could reignite inflation concerns and complicate the Fed outlook, limiting enthusiasm for risk-sensitive assets such as crypto.
- Regulation: Uncertainty surrounding U.S. crypto legislation remains another overhang. Investors are still waiting for greater clarity around the regulatory framework for digital assets, adding to the reluctance to aggressively buy into the downturn.
Fed Expectations Offer Crypto a Potential Tailwind
The macroeconomic environment may be one of the strongest arguments for stabilization in crypto prices. Expectations for a September Fed rate hike have fallen sharply following a run of softer economic data, with market-implied odds dropping to around 31% from 55% a week earlier. July's labor report showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs, while consumer inflation eased to 3.4%. Retail sales also declined 0.6% in July, adding to evidence that economic momentum is slowing and reducing the urgency for the Fed to tighten monetary policy again.
That shift matters for bitcoin, ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies because tighter monetary policy generally makes speculative assets less appealing. If investors become increasingly confident that interest rates have peaked for the year, improving liquidity expectations could eventually give crypto prices room to recover. Yet bitcoin’s muted response to recent economic data also deserves attention. Even as rate-hike expectations have fallen, the cryptocurrency has repeatedly struggled to generate sustained momentum above $64,000, suggesting macroeconomic relief alone has not been enough to bring buyers back in force.
Ethereum Struggles to Regain Momentum
Ethereum has faced an even steeper climb. The second-largest cryptocurrency opened Monday at $1,874.10 before recovering toward $1,900, leaving it down 1.8% from a week earlier but slightly higher over the past month. More striking is Ethereum’s longer-term performance. The token remains roughly 58% below its level from a year ago and dramatically below its August 2025 all-time high of $4,953.73. Bitcoin, by comparison, is down roughly 46% year over year.
That underperformance has made institutional demand particularly important to watch. Crypto investors will be looking for signs that capital is beginning to return to both bitcoin and ethereum products after periods of ETF outflows, which could provide evidence that larger investors see current prices as increasingly attractive.
Looking Ahead
Crypto enters the second half of August at a potentially important crossroads. Bitcoin has stabilized around $63,000, and Ethereum is fighting to reclaim $1,900, but neither has produced the kind of decisive breakout that would clearly signal the bear market has run its course. The Federal Reserve could provide the next major catalyst. Investors will scrutinize Wednesday’s release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes for clues about policymakers’ willingness to leave rates unchanged, while also watching Treasury yields, oil prices, ETF flows, and geopolitical developments.
For now, lower volatility should not be mistaken for an absence of risk. With analysts sharply divided over whether bitcoin is approaching a breakout or still weeks away from a cyclical bottom, the unusually quiet trading around $63,000 may ultimately prove to be the calm before crypto’s next major move.