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​Stock Market Today: Dow Climbs While S&P 500, Nasdaq Pause Ahead of Fed Decision and Hormuz Uncertainty

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U.S. stocks were mixed on Tuesday as investors took a breather following a record-setting rally, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average extending gains while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped modestly. Traders balanced optimism surrounding a U.S.-Iran peace agreement against lingering questions over energy supplies and the Federal Reserve's first policy meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

The Dow rose roughly 0.8%, building on Monday's all-time closing high, while the S&P 500 edged 0.3% lower and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%. The cautious tone reflected profit-taking in growth stocks as investors awaited fresh guidance from the Fed and monitored whether the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would proceed as planned.

Market Movers:

Federal Reserve Takes Center Stage

Markets are now focused on the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting, the first led by Chair Kevin Warsh. While economists overwhelmingly expect policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged, investors will closely examine updated economic projections and the Fed's "dot plot" for clues about the likelihood of additional rate hikes later this year. Recent inflation reports have complicated the outlook, with higher energy costs pushing both consumer and producer prices above expectations. Some market participants believe the easing of geopolitical tensions could eventually reduce inflationary pressures, while others remain concerned that high energy costs will continue.

Oil Market Optimism Faces Reality Check

Although the U.S.-Iran agreement has fueled hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, analysts caution that restoring normal shipping operations could take months rather than days. That uncertainty has tempered the market's initial optimism, even as crude prices have retreated below recent highs. Officials have indicated commercial vessels will be allowed to transit the waterway without tolls, but the lack of detailed implementation plans continues to create uncertainty for energy markets and inflation expectations heading into the second half of the year.

SpaceX Rally Captures Wall Street's Attention

SpaceX remains one of the biggest stories in the market just days after its public debut. The company's continued surge briefly pushed its market capitalization above Amazon and, at one point, even surpassed Microsoft, making it one of the world's largest publicly traded companies. The extraordinary rally highlights investors' appetite for AI, aerospace, and next-generation technology leaders, though some analysts question whether current valuations adequately reflect the company's financial performance.

Looking Ahead

Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision is likely to set the tone for markets through the remainder of the week. Investors will be looking for any changes in policymakers' inflation outlook and interest rate projections while continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East and the pace of oil market normalization. With AI enthusiasm, geopolitical risks, and monetary policy all competing for attention, volatility is likely to remain elevated even as major indexes hover near record levels.

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