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​Stock Market Today: Dow Sinks More Than 800 Points as Oil Surges, Fed Minutes Loom

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U.S. stocks took a steep dive on Wednesday as renewed conflict between the United States and Iran rattled global markets, sending oil prices soaring and renewing concerns about inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 800 points, or roughly 1.6%, while the S&P 500 fell about 1% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped close to 1% as investors shifted into a risk-off stance.

Markets were hit by a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and rising Treasury yields after President Donald Trump declared the U.S.-Iran peace memorandum "over" following a new round of military strikes. With crude prices climbing and investors anticipating the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes later in the day, traders largely stepped to the sidelines.

Market Movers:

Middle East Tensions Send Oil Higher

Investor sentiment fell after the U.S. launched a new wave of strikes against Iranian targets following attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump later declared that the ceasefire agreement between the two countries was effectively over, raising fears that tensions could continue escalating. Energy markets reacted swiftly, with Brent crude climbing toward $79 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate traded above $75. Renewed concerns about supply disruptions through one of the world's most important oil shipping routes added to inflation worries and weighed heavily on equities.

Rising Treasury Yields Renew Inflation Concerns

Treasury yields climbed as investors reassessed the inflation outlook following the surge in oil prices. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since May, reflecting expectations that higher energy costs could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation back toward its 2% target. Markets also increased their expectations for another interest rate hike later this year, with traders assigning greater odds that policymakers could tighten monetary policy as early as October if inflationary pressures intensify.

All Eyes Turn to the Fed Minutes

The release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting is expected to provide additional insight into how officials are balancing persistent inflation against signs of a cooling labor market. Investors will be looking for clues about how Chair Kevin Warsh and fellow policymakers are evaluating the risks posed by rising energy prices and broader economic conditions. With inflation already running above target before the latest spike in crude oil, any indication that policymakers remain concerned about price pressures could reinforce expectations that rates will stay higher for longer.

Looking Ahead

Markets remain highly sensitive to developments in both the Middle East and monetary policy. If geopolitical tensions continue to escalate and oil prices remain elevated, investors could face renewed volatility as higher energy costs threaten to reignite inflation and strengthen the case for additional Fed tightening. Attention will now focus on the Fed meeting minutes, upcoming inflation data, and any further developments involving U.S.-Iran relations. Together, those events are likely to shape market sentiment and determine whether recent weakness extends into the coming weeks.

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