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​Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Waver as Inflation Fears Cloud Start of October

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U.S. stocks hovered near the flatline on Thursday as Wall Street kicked off the fourth quarter amid inflation worries and elevated Treasury yields that kept investors cautious. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 0.2%, while the S&P 500 was little changed and the Nasdaq Composite slipped slightly after recovering from earlier losses.

October's muted start came as fresh manufacturing data pointed to stronger price pressures, complicating the outlook for interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed to another multi-decade high near 5.3% before easing, while strength in energy prices and fading momentum in parts of the AI trade added to the uncertainty.

Market Movers:

Inflation Fears Return

Fresh manufacturing data delivered an uncomfortable combination for investors: stronger activity alongside rising prices. S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.9 in September from 53.9 in August, signaling accelerating expansion in the sector.

The ISM manufacturing report delivered an even clearer inflation warning, with its prices paid index surging 6.8 percentage points to 77.9, well above expectations. That renewed evidence of price pressure could strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to keep monetary policy restrictive.

Bond Yields Keep Pressure on Stocks

Treasury yields remained a major obstacle after the bond market suffered a brutal third quarter. The 10-year yield briefly reached roughly 5.3% Thursday before retreating, extending a move that has pushed borrowing costs to levels not seen in decades.

Higher yields have weighed particularly heavily on rate-sensitive and richly valued stocks. The AI trade also cooled Thursday despite an upbeat outlook from Micron, with several major technology and semiconductor names struggling to gain traction.

Oil Adds Another Inflation Headache

Energy prices remained another source of uncertainty after China reportedly suspended fuel exports for October. Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel while WTI traded around $92, keeping concerns about energy-driven inflation firmly in focus.

Higher energy costs threaten to feed into transportation, manufacturing and consumer prices at a time when investors are already questioning whether inflation is proving more persistent than expected. That makes the combination of oil prices and Treasury yields especially important for the Fed outlook.

Looking Ahead

Investors now turn to Friday’s September jobs report for the next major clue on the economy and interest rates. A strong labor report could reinforce expectations that the Fed has room to remain restrictive, while a meaningful slowdown could raise fresh concerns about economic growth. Markets will also be watching whether Treasury yields can retreat from their latest highs and whether the AI trade regains momentum. After a volatile September, those forces could determine whether October begins with a rebound or another difficult stretch for Wall Street.

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