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​Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Nasdaq Rise as Softer Inflation Data Lifts Rate Outlook

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U.S. stocks edged higher on Thursday as another encouraging inflation report helped ease fears of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike, while investors worked through a busy round of corporate earnings. The S&P 500 gained about 0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced roughly 0.7% as growth stocks benefited from a friendlier rate backdrop.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, slipping about 0.1% as the blue-chip index struggled for direction. Thursday's gains followed Wednesday's cooler consumer inflation report, with softer producer prices adding to evidence that inflation pressures may be stabilizing despite continued uncertainty surrounding energy markets and the Strait of Hormuz.

Market Movers:

Softer Inflation Data Gives the Fed More Breathing Room

Thursday's Producer Price Index added to evidence that inflation pressures are beginning to cool. Producer prices rose less than economists had expected, while core measures showed slower price growth on both a monthly and annual basis. The report followed Wednesday's Consumer Price Index, which showed annual inflation easing to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June. Together, the reports have encouraged investors to scale back expectations for a September rate hike, particularly after July's surprisingly weak employment report showed the U.S. economy losing 23,000 jobs.

That does not mean the inflation fight is over. Price growth remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, leaving policymakers with an uncomfortable mix of softer employment and still-elevated inflation. The question increasingly facing markets is whether recent moderation will prove durable enough for the Fed to remain on hold through the rest of the year.

Oil and the Strait of Hormuz Remain a Wild Card

Energy prices remain one of the biggest threats to that improving inflation picture. Oil prices moved lower Thursday as the Trump administration shifted its focus from active military operations toward economic pressure on Iran, but uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains elevated. The disruption matters well beyond energy markets. A prolonged restriction on oil shipments could push crude prices higher again, feed through to transportation and production costs, and complicate the Fed's efforts to bring inflation under control.

The dollar is also caught between competing forces. Reduced expectations for Fed tightening could pressure the currency, while continued geopolitical instability and the United States' position as a major energy producer could preserve demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

AI Earnings Put Sky-High Expectations to the Test

Earnings season continues to reveal a striking divide in the AI trade: demand for computing infrastructure remains enormous, but investors are becoming increasingly selective about which companies receive credit for that growth. Cisco's decline despite better-than-expected results offered another example. Its AI-related hyperscaler business continues to expand rapidly, yet strong numbers were not enough to satisfy investors after a powerful run for AI infrastructure stocks. Cerebras faced an even harsher reaction after its revenue and earnings fell short of expectations.

At the same time, IREN's Microsoft deployment reinforced the scale of spending still flowing into the sector. Investors will get another important read after Thursday's close when chip-equipment heavyweight Applied Materials reports results, with its outlook likely to provide another window into semiconductor demand and the durability of the AI infrastructure cycle.

Looking Ahead

Markets now have two encouraging inflation reports in hand, giving investors more reason to believe the Federal Reserve can remain patient after July's weak jobs data. If inflation continues to cool without a deeper deterioration in employment, the prospect of an extended Fed pause could provide support for equities, particularly rate-sensitive technology and growth stocks. But the path remains unusually dependent on developments outside the traditional economic calendar. Oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz, elevated Treasury yields, and increasingly demanding expectations for AI companies all have the potential to quickly shift sentiment. With major indexes hovering near record territory, investors will be looking for confirmation that cooling inflation and resilient corporate growth can keep the rally moving without another shock upsetting the balance.

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