Stock Market Today: Stocks Surge to Record Highs on Trade Deal Momentum and Fed Rate-Cut Bets

​U.S. stocks are on track to reach new records this Monday as optimism grew over a potential breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks and investors geared up for a major week of economic and earnings news.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 0.5%, the S&P 500 (GSPC) gained 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) led the way, climbing 1.6%. The positive mood followed last week’s all-time highs across the major indexes, with investors now eyeing further gains on hopes that President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi later this week will culminate in a long-awaited trade agreement.

Wall Street’s rally came as U.S. and Chinese officials pointed to “substantial progress” made in weekend negotiations, fueling hopes of a deal by Thursday. “We have a very successful framework for the leaders to discuss,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday, while Beijing cited a “preliminary consensus” to ease tariff and export restrictions.

Market Movers:

• ​Qualcomm (QCOM) — Up 11%: Shares surged after the chipmaker announced a major expansion into the data center business with new AI200 and AI250 processors, directly targeting Nvidia and AMD. The move marks Qualcomm’s most aggressive push yet into high-performance computing, setting the stage for a new front in the AI hardware race.
• Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP) — Up 7%: KDP rallied after the beverage company raised its full-year sales forecast to high single-digit growth, citing stronger coffee and soft drink demand. The upbeat outlook follows its $18 billion Peet’s Coffee acquisition, which will split the company into two focused entities next year.
• MP Materials (MP) — Down 8%: MP Materials fell after U.S. and Chinese officials signaled trade negotiations had made headway. The news eased concerns about ongoing export restrictions from Beijing, which had driven up rare earth prices earlier this month.
• Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META) — Each Up Between 1% and 3%: Big Tech names rallied ahead of a critical earnings week for the “Magnificent Seven.” Investors are betting on another strong quarter for AI-driven growth, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta all set to report on Wednesday.

Markets Welcome Trade Breakthrough Hopes

The week began with renewed hope for a U.S.-China breakthrough as the world’s two largest economies attempted to finalize a deal that could lift tariffs and reopen stalled trade channels. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he has “great respect for President Xi” and expects to “come away with a deal.”

Officials close to the talks said the framework would likely involve China delaying its new rare-earth export controls in exchange for the U.S. removing some tariffs and restrictions on advanced semiconductor equipment. Treasury Secretary Bessent added that Beijing may also resume purchases of U.S. soybeans — a major sticking point in previous negotiations.

The easing trade tensions have already sent ripples across global commodities. Oil prices jumped nearly 6%, with Brent crude hovering near $66 per barrel, after fresh U.S. sanctions targeted Russian energy producers.

Fed Set to Cut Rates as Data Gap Widens

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins Tuesday, with markets overwhelmingly expecting a quarter-point rate cut when the decision is announced Wednesday. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has left policymakers without key economic data, including the September jobs report, forcing the central bank to rely on private estimates and inflation gauges.

“Even without the official data, the Fed’s bias remains toward easing,” former Kansas City Fed President Esther George said. “The focus is on maintaining growth momentum amid political and global uncertainty.”

Tech and AI Earnings Take Center Stage

Traders are also bracing for a flood of Big Tech earnings, which will serve as a key test of market momentum. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta all report on Wednesday, while Apple and Amazon follow on Thursday. Analysts expect continued strength in AI-related services and advertising, but warn that any sign of slowing cloud demand could pressure valuations. With the Magnificent Seven representing nearly 30% of the S&P 500’s market cap, their results could heavily sway broader market direction.

Looking Ahead

The next 72 hours are packed with potential market catalysts — from the Fed’s rate decision to Trump and Xi’s face-to-face meeting on Thursday. A successful trade agreement could supercharge the current rally, but any signs of tension or policy missteps may spark volatility. With tech megacaps, monetary policy, and geopolitics colliding in the same week, investors are preparing for one of the most consequential stretches of the year on Wall Street.