Stock Market Today: Stocks Waver as Geopolitics and Fed Policy Take Center Stage

​U.S. stocks were cautious on Monday as investors weighed geopolitical uncertainty and the prospect of future Federal Reserve policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) stayed mostly flat, a pause after two consecutive weeks of gains. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (GSPC) dipped 0.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) fell 0.2%, signaling a broad sense of caution across the markets.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine met with U.S. officials and European allies in Washington, D.C., with discussions expected to center on a potential peace agreement with Russia. At the same time, traders are bracing for insights from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium later this week, a key event for the outlook on interest rates.

Market Movers:

• ​UnitedHealth Group (UNH): +3.2%: Shares climbed as investors reacted well to stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings and upbeat guidance for 2025. Analysts highlighted growth in its Medicare Advantage segment, which helped offset concerns about healthcare spending pressures. The move contributed to the Dow’s slight gain despite broader market caution.
• Apple (AAPL): -0.9%: Apple dipped slightly as traders digested reports of softer iPhone demand in emerging markets. Supply chain uncertainties and rising component costs have also weighed on sentiment. The decline reflects broader tech sector volatility ahead of key Fed signals this week.
• Intel (INTC): +1.8%: Intel surged after the company confirmed plans to expand chip manufacturing capacity in the U.S., signaling confidence in long-term demand. Investors interpreted the announcement as a strategic move to capitalize on ongoing semiconductor shortages. The news partially offset negative sentiment from broader market concerns about interest rates.
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW): -0.8%: Shares of the cybersecurity firm fell after recent gains prompted some profit-taking. While demand for network security remains strong, investors paused ahead of expected earnings updates from other major tech companies. Analysts suggest the stock may stabilize once more clarity emerges on sector growth.

Geopolitical Uncertainty

Markets remain sensitive to developments in Ukraine, where President Zelensky is under pressure to negotiate terms with Russia that may influence European security and energy markets. U.S. policymakers have stressed a delicate balance between supporting Ukraine and avoiding escalation. Investors are closely watching statements from both sides, as any indication of concessions or prolonged conflict could sway risk sentiment and drive market volatility.

Federal Reserve Focus

Wall Street is also anticipating insights from Jerome Powell at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. With inflation and retail data showing mixed signals, the Fed faces a delicate decision on interest rates. Powell’s comments, likely his final address as Fed chair, could clarify the central bank’s stance on potential rate cuts or continued monetary tightening, setting the tone for markets in the months ahead.

Minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting revealed internal debate over the pace of policy changes, and investors are eager for guidance on whether the central bank will lean toward caution or accelerate adjustments in response to persistent inflation pressures.

Retail and Inflation Signals

Recent data on U.S. retail sales showed moderate growth, but wholesale price gains suggest inflationary pressures may persist. This combination has prompted market participants to temper their expectations for aggressive monetary easing. Analysts caution that any unexpected shifts in inflation or consumer spending could quickly sway market sentiment, particularly for indices sensitive to interest rate expectations.

Looking Ahead

Investors will closely monitor Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole for clues about the Fed’s next moves, as well as updates from geopolitical talks surrounding Ukraine. Any hints of accelerated rate cuts, further monetary tightening, or shifts in international relations are likely to produce immediate market reactions. Traders appear poised to balance optimism from steady retail activity against caution stemming from inflation risks and global uncertainty.